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Liar's dice looks like a game of nerve, and nerve matters. But most games are decided earlier, by who counts better. These are habits that tend to win dice. None of them is a law: good players break each one on purpose now and then, because the table is reading them too. They use the odds tables, so keep that page open if you want the exact numbers, and the rules if anything here is unfamiliar.
Start with your own hand
Before every bid, count the dice you hold that match the face you are thinking of. In wild ones, count your 1s as well. That number is certain. Everything else on the table is a guess, so a bid on a face you hold starts with a head start.
Opening bids
- A low opening bid on a face you hold is a sound default. It is likely to hold, and it leaves you room to raise.
- It is not free, though. Other players read bids as evidence (see below), and a bid on a face you hold tells them you probably hold it. Now and then, opening on a face you do not hold makes you harder to read.
- A high opening is not always wrong. With a strong hand, for example four matching dice, it is safe. Open as high as your hand supports and no higher, since every step above that is one you have to defend while the next player chooses between raising and calling.
Raise in small steps
A bid must go up in quantity, or stay at the same quantity with a higher face. The cheapest raise is usually the second one: keep the quantity and move up a face, when that face is also one you hold. That adds the least risk, since the number of dice you claim does not go up, and it leaves room for the next raise.
Call by comparing, not by feeling
“That sounds too high” is not a reason to call. A better question is: is calling better than the best raise I have? Whoever is wrong loses a die, so compare the chance of being wrong with each option.
Example, wild ones, fifteen dice on the table. You hold 4, 4, 1, 6 and 2, so three dice count for 4s and ten dice are unknown. The last bid is six 4s.
| Your options | What happens |
|---|---|
| Call liar on six 4s | The bid holds 70 % of the time, so you win 30 %. |
| Raise to seven 4s | It holds 44 % of the time if someone calls it. |
| Raise to eight 4s | It holds 21 % of the time. That is a pure bluff. |
None of these are good. Raising to seven is the best of the three, and it passes the decision to the next player. If you had held no 1s, the same bid would be much worse for you. That leads to the next point.
In wild ones, a 1 is worth a lot
A 1 in your hand counts for any face you bid on. That makes it as good as a matching die. Fifteen dice, wild ones, and the bid is six 4s. You hold one 4 and four other dice.
| Your other four dice | Chance six 4s holds |
|---|---|
| 2, 3, 5, 6 (no 1) | 21 % |
| 1, 3, 5, 6 (one 1) | 44 % |
A single 1 more than doubles the chance. In straight ones it does nothing special, which is one of the reasons the two rule sets are played so differently.
Read the bids
The odds treat every unseen die as a fresh roll, but other players do not bid at random. Their bids are evidence.
- A bid far above what the table would normally hold means either a good hand or a bluff. Ask which is more likely for that player.
- A player who keeps coming back to the same face is often holding it, though a bluffer can do the same. Their bid is usually more believable than the odds alone say.
- A player who suddenly changes face may have run out of what they had, or be steering you away from it.
Bluff sometimes, and plausibly
A bluff works when the table can believe it. A bid a little above what the table should hold is believable. A bid far above it is a gift to whoever calls.
- Bluff on a face the table has seen you bid before. A sudden new face often looks like what it is.
- Bluff rarely. A player who bluffs every round is called every round, and loses a die each time it goes wrong.
- Keep a bluff for the moment where the real alternative, a call or a raise, is also bad.
The endgame
With few dice left, every die is worth much more, and bids are far smaller. Two dice each, wild ones. You hold a 4 and a 2, so one die counts for 4s and two are unknown.
| Bid | Chance it holds |
|---|---|
| two 4s | 56 % |
| three 4s | 11 % |
| four 4s | 0 % (you hold only one) |
In the endgame a bid one above what you hold is often fair, and two above is almost always a bluff. Check the real count before every raise.
Common mistakes
- Calling on gut. Compare the call with your best raise.
- Being predictable. If you only ever bid what you hold, the table learns to read you.
- Bluffing too often. It is easy to read and costs a die each time it fails.
- Mixing up the rule sets. A third of the dice on the table in wild ones, a sixth in straight ones. The same bid can be safe in one and absurd in the other.
- Forgetting the dice count. The more dice that are gone, the smaller the bids that are reasonable.